Modeling dynamics in tourism prices: the case of Slovenia

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V
dvostranskem projektu želimo okrepiti naše sodelovanje, ki do sedaj že traja tri
leta. Sergej Gričar, Štefan Bojnec in Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal sodelujejo pri analiziranju
časovnih vrst na področju turizma in na drugih makroekonomskih področjih. Zato
je pomembno, da se v prihodnjih letih nadaljujemo in ukvarjamo z vsebino predlaganega
projekta, da objavimo  znanstveni članek
v znanstvenem časopisu najvišje znanstvene kategorije. Prejšnja sodelovanja med
Norveško (Kivedal) in Slovenijo (Gričar) so: prijava na Norveški Grant, Erasmus
+ mobilnost na Norveško novembra 2017, osnutek skupnega znanstvenega prispevka
in “small talk” za javnost v Haldnu leta 2017. Ugotovili smo, da obstaja
potreba po sodelovanju med raziskovalci pri analiziranju časovnih vrst in
metodah kointegracije, večinoma takrat kadar govorimo v jeziku I(2)
kointegracije, ki se uporablja v Evropi. Na tem področju ne deluje veliko
raziskovalcev, zato je dvostransko sodelovanje med Kivedalom, Bojnecem in
Gričarjem pomembno metodološko delo, ki potrebuje niz podpor za prihodnji
razvoj tega področja ekonometrije.

Za oceno dinamike cen, povezanih s turizmom v Sloveniji
in evroobmočjem, uporabljamo model kointegracije I(2). Ugotavljamo, da so
slovenske cene pomembna gonilna sila v evrskem območju, da pa na cene hrane in
pijač v Sloveniji v večji meri vplivajo cene v evrskem območju. Če pogledamo
velikost parametrov, dobimo navedbo, kako se I(2) nalaga na različne spremenljivke.
Prvi trend, ustvarjen predvsem iz Slovenije, se nalaga predvsem v gostinskih
cenah tako v Sloveniji kot v evroobmočju. Drugi trend, ki je večinoma ustvarjen
iz evrskega območja, se nalaga tudi na gostinske cene, vendar z manjšim
učinkom. To kaže, da sta oba I(2) trenda, ki izhajata iz dveh kumulativnih
šokov in različnih spremenljivk, pomembna za gostinske cene. Ker se trendi
generirajo iz spremenljivk na različnih področjih, se zdi, da je slovensko
gospodarstvo pomembno za cene v gostinstvu na celotnem evrskem območju, poleg
tega, da slovenske gostinske cene vplivajo na območje evra v celoti. Zdi se, da
na cene hrane in pijače vpliva trend I(2) iz Slovenije in evro območja. Skupni
šoki cen hrane in pijač v Sloveniji vodijo oba trenda, tako da na gibanje I(2),
povezano z evrskim območjem, vplivajo cene hrane in pijač v Sloveniji, ne pa
tudi slovenske gostinske cene.

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In the bilateral project we would like to strengthen our
cooperation which lasts for 3 years up to now. Sergej Gričar, Štefan Bojnec and
Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal are working together on time series in tourism, and
other macroeconomic prices and variables. Therefore an important issue is to
work on the scope of the project in future years. The goal of the project is to
publish a scientific paper in the highest ranking journal category. The
previous colaborations between Norway (Kivedal) and Slovenia (Gričar) are:
application to Norway Grant, Erasmus+ mobility to Norway in November 2017,
draft of the joint scientific paper and small talk to the public in Halden in
2017. As we realised there is a need for cooperation between researchers on
time series analyes and cointegration methods mostly when we are talking in a
I(2) language which is in use in Europe. There are not many researchers working
on this research subject. Therefore, the bilateral cooperation between Kivedal,
Bojnec and Gričar is on a contemporary research topic which needs support for
future development on time series methodology.

We use the I(2) cointegration model in order to
estimate the dynamics between prices related to tourism in Slovenia and the
Euro area. We find that Slovenian prices are an important driving force behind
prices in the Euro area, but that prices of food and beverages in Slovenia is
to a larger extent influenced by prices in the Euro area. By looking at the
size of the parameters, we get an indication of how the I(2) tends loads into
to different variables. The first trend, mainly generated from Slovenia, loads primarily
into hospitality prices both in Slovenia and in the Euro area. The second
trend, that is mainly generated from the Euro area, also loads into hospitality
prices but with a smaller effect. This indicates that both of the I(2) trends
generated from twice cumulated shocks to different variables are important for
hospitality prices. Additionally, since the trends are generated from variables
in different areas, it seems that the Slovenian economy is important for
hospitality prices in the entire Euro area, in addition to Slovenian
hospitality prices being influenced by the Euro area in total. Prices of food
and beverage seems to be affected both by the I(2) trend from Slovenia and from
the Euro area. Cumulated shocks to prices of food and beverage in Slovenia are
driving both trends, such that the I(2) trend related to the Euro area is
affected by food and beverage prices in Slovenia but not Slovenian hospitality
prices.