Impact of External Shocks on Tourism and Inflation

Cilj predlaganega projekta je raziskati vpliv zunanjih šokov na turizem in inflacijo med Slovenijo in Črno goro z uporabo naprednih ekonometričnih tehnik. Poudarek je na razumevanju makroekonomske stabilnosti in učinkov članstva v Evropski Uniji (EU) in Evropski monetarni uniji na ti dve gospodarstvi, ki se soočata z različnimi potmi v evropsko integracijo. Raziskava bo analizirala dinamiko inflacije, vpliv integracije v EU na gibanje inflacije ter razmerje med inflacijo in parametri denarne politike. Prizadeva si ugotoviti, ali imajo makroekonomski šoki trajen ali prehoden učinek na inflacijo in kako je mogoče učinkovito oblikovati monetarne strategije. Poleg tega je cilj projekta raziskati dolgoročno povezavo med inflacijo in makroekonomskimi parametri, kot so brezposelnost, gospodarska rast, zaslužek in turistično povpraševanje, z uporabo strojnega učenja in napredne analitike. Cilj je obravnavati pereče vprašanje inflacije, ki so ga poslabšale motnje v dobavni verigi in zdravstvene krize, ter oceniti učinkovitost denarne politike pri blaženju uvožene inflacije zaradi povišanja cen hrane in energije. Projekt vključuje sodelovanje med Črno goro in Slovenijo, katerega namen je poglobiti partnerstvo in objaviti izvirna empirična dela o vplivih inflacije z ekonometričnimi modeli in naprednimi tehnikami strojnega jezika.

Projekt financira Javna agencija za znanstvenoraziskovalno in inovacijsko dejavnost Republike Slovenije (ARIS).

The proposed project aims to investigate the impact of external shocks on tourism and inflation between Slovenia and Montenegro using advanced econometric techniques. The emphasis is on understanding macroeconomic stability and the effects of European Union and European Monetary Union (EMU) membership on these two economies, which face different paths to European integration. The research will analyse inflation dynamics, the impact of EU integration on inflation trends and the relationship between inflation and monetary policy parameters. It seeks to determine whether macroeconomic shocks have a permanent or transitory effect on inflation and how monetary strategies can be effectively designed. In addition, the project aims to investigate the long-term relationship between inflation and macroeconomic parameters such as unemployment, economic growth, earnings and tourism demand, using machine learning and advanced analytics. The objective is to address the pressing issue of inflation, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and health crises, and to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in mitigating imported inflation from rising food and energy prices. The project involves cooperation between Montenegro and Slovenia to deepen the partnership and publish original empirical works on the effects of inflation using econometric models and advanced machine language techniques.